Since there is no way to forecast how long the volcano will be active, I wonder if there could be a return to the traditional 5-day express service.

While I'm dreaming, what about QE2 being chartered to Cunard for 5-day liner runs!

[ 04-16-2010: Message edited by: lasuvidaboy ]

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Originally posted by mike sa:
What is very concerning is that the volcano could keep this up for months (even years) there is no way to predict it, if so every time the wind changes direction will all the airports close again ? If so Europe will be back in a recession (and potentially a much worse one) within a couple of months.

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The disruption of goods and services between Europe and the US by air, as well as Europe to SE Asia and the rest of the world for any length of time could be catastrophic. 

Intersting point first made. I wonder if this did keep up for months, if the other Icelandic volcano erupted as well triggered by the current events, if the cruise lines could pull ships from their deployments and temporarily establish a regular system of transatlantic service, say a dozen or so ships carrying passengers every week? Ships out of Baltimore and NY that normally go to Bermuda, Canada/New England, and the Caribbean could be diverted for transatlantic use. The Oasis of the Seas can carry 6,000+ at a time.

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Originally posted by mike sa:
[...]Strange how Carnival always seems to come out on the brighter side of things.[...]

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Originally posted by dmwnc1:

I wonder if there is a contingency plan in place now that if something like this went on for a year, would the US Navy establish a convoy service to transport goods and materials?

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Originally posted by Magic Pipe:
This comment makes it sound like there are currently no ships that cross the Atlantic. There are hundreds of ships employed doing just this. No need for the US Navy to start to carrying goods and materials. There are tankers, bulk carriers, container ships and car carriers that are doing that right now. And some of those ships carry passengers, too.

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Originally posted by Magic Pipe:
I imagine that the cargo carried on UPS/FedEx planes would fit on the existing ships without a problem. An entire cargo plane carries the equivalent of only a handful of containers, volume wise.

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THANKS! Very insightful.

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Originally posted by Ernst:

I very much doubt that since the cruise industry depends heftily on the airline industry to get passengers to their ships.

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Exactly. All the cruise lines, Carnival included will feel a major impact should this situation continue.

Lines like Princess, HAL, Celebrity, NCL, Royal Caribbean, Oceania, Regent, etc. etc. still source the majority of passengers for European cruises from North America. They all rely on the air industry to get all these passengers to Europe. Even lines that source heavily within Europe like Costa and MSC Cruises still rely on airlift to get passengers to embarkation ports such Barcelona and Rome. The trend lately for almost every cruise line is to build up capacity in Europe sending almost their entire fleet there during the Summer months. This might prove to be a very costly mistake should this situation continue. At least ships are mobile and can be relocated, but at great expense and lost revenue no matter how you look at it.

On a personal note, I am scheduled to depart on QM2 this Thursday. I fly out of Miami to London on Wednesday but if my flight actually operates is anyones guess.

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Originally posted by eroller:

On a personal note, I am scheduled to depart on QM2 this Thursday. I fly out of Miami to London on Wednesday but if my flight actually operates is anyones guess.

Ernie

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Originally posted by dmwnc1:

Just curious as to how much cargo is carried daily/weekly in non-passenger aircraft, that if grounded for a year would there be a need for a backup plan to employ more ships to makeup for that loss?

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You can always catch a ride of Air Force One. The president is making the trip on Wednesday-I bet that plane (and the escorts) all take-off on schedule.

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Originally posted by Cunardcoll:

theory an old piston engined prop could fly but where do you find such a plane that is ready for active duty ?

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Originally posted by Cunardcoll:
I don't think so , not even the English air force (wich is the largest fleet in Europe) is flying at the moment , in theory an old piston engined prop could fly but where do you find such a plane that is ready for active duty ?

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I don't think anything can fly. All aicraft need some sort of air intake, the glass particles in the 'ash' would strip anything; then there is the problem of the windscreens becoming opaque.

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Originally posted by PamM:

I don't think anything can fly. All aicraft need some sort of air intake, the glass particles in the 'ash' would strip anything; then there is the problem of the windscreens becoming opaque.

Pam

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Jet engines have a problem piston engines do no have: The ash melts in the combustion chamber. This can cause problems even when abrasion is not yet an major issue (of engine and aircraft parts like the windows you mentioned). Blocking the entire European airspace might appear to be an overreaction, however nobody really seems to know where the ash is and at which concentration these problems might occur.

[ 04-18-2010: Message edited by: Ernst ]

For the cruise industry specifically, one would think guess that Lisbon would be no more than an extra 2 days sail tops from primary ports where they would normally embark passengers and could continue their European / Med cruises with altered itineraries.

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Originally posted by Cunardcoll:
[...]however , an old piston engine does not really have a major air intake with moving parts , the air intake of that engine is only for cooling so it would not really effect the engine [...]

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