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» Cruise Talk   » Cruise Lines   » Carnival Making a Bid for RCL? (Page 1)

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Author Topic: Carnival Making a Bid for RCL?
joe at travelpage
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posted 07-06-2009 04:01 PM      Profile for joe at travelpage   Author's Homepage   Email joe at travelpage   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Anyone heard anything about Carnival Corp making a bid for Royal Caribbean for $35 per share (current RCL price is around $13 per share)?

Joe at TravelPage.com


Posts: 29976 | From: Great Falls, Virginia | Registered: A Long Time Ago!  |  IP: Logged
Pascal
First Class Passenger
Member # 5510

posted 07-06-2009 04:19 PM      Profile for Pascal     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I can't see how competition regulators would allow this. Carnival can probably afford this (at great cost), but the authorities will never be OK. Any further acquisition (or even joint venture) by Carnivore will face this kind of issues : remember what happen with TUI.
They can still do this but they will be forced to sell or demerge a number of companies to compensate RCCL group purchase (they would have to let go at least something equivalent to Princess, P&O, Cunard & HAL combined). I don't see Carnival doing this (tremendous cost, financiary and organisational), unless they want to kill definitively their main competitor, whatever the cost.

[ 07-06-2009: Message edited by: Pascal ]


Posts: 1371 | From: Aix en Provence | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
Atlcruiser
First Class Passenger
Member # 4586

posted 07-06-2009 06:39 PM      Profile for Atlcruiser   Email Atlcruiser   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Here is the link to the article.

http://dailycruisenews.com/artman/publish/article_9035.shtml

I have my doubts that the FTC would allow this to happen.


Posts: 916 | From: Atlanta | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
r.fiebig
First Class Passenger
Member # 5240

posted 07-06-2009 06:52 PM      Profile for r.fiebig   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I also have very serious doubts about this. Not only the FTC but European antitrust authorities, as well, won't allow this to happen, unless Carnival sells several brands.

Remember that Carnival used to be TUI's first choice for the TUI Cruises joint venture. It failed because of German and Austrian antitrust authorities were likely not to pass it.

What sounds downright ridiculous to me is the suspected counter bid by Star Cruises.


Best,

Raoul


Posts: 775 | From: Paderborn, Germany | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
eroller
First Class Passenger
Member # 1649

posted 07-06-2009 07:31 PM      Profile for eroller     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
My guess is that Carnival feels they can get around regulatory control just like they have with every other acquisition. They promote themselves as a company within the "travel industry" and not the "cruise industry". When you look at the entire travel industry as a whole, Carnival can hardly be considered a monopoly.

Hopefully with a new administration in place, they will see beyond the greed of corporate America and realize that such an acquisition would be nothing but detrimental to the industry. The only people that would really benefit are the high stakes stock holders, and haven't we seen enough of that over the past several years?

It amazes me that Carnival's business strategy of just buying up as much of the competition as they can has gotten as far as it has.

Ernie

[ 07-06-2009: Message edited by: eroller ]


Posts: 7046 | From: Miami, Florida USA | Registered: Oct 2000  |  IP: Logged
PamM
First Class Passenger
Member # 2127

posted 07-06-2009 07:55 PM      Profile for PamM   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Carnival state in their accounts that they are the "largest cruise vacation group in the world" which "also operates Holland America Tours and Princess Tours". I cannot see any monopolies commission/regulatory authority anywhere permitting further acquisitions of competitiors. Gossip perhaps?

Pam


Posts: 12176 | From: Cambridge, UK | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
eroller
First Class Passenger
Member # 1649

posted 07-06-2009 07:59 PM      Profile for eroller     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by PamM:
. Gossip perhaps?

Pam


Lets hope so Pam. They have used the "vacation company" strategy successfully in the past.

I was very much opposed to either RCCL or Carnival acquiring P&O/Princess and I'm certainly opposed to this.

Ernie


Posts: 7046 | From: Miami, Florida USA | Registered: Oct 2000  |  IP: Logged
Atlcruiser
First Class Passenger
Member # 4586

posted 07-06-2009 08:28 PM      Profile for Atlcruiser   Email Atlcruiser   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I can see it now. It would give Mickey another reason to use the Vista and Dream class design.
Posts: 916 | From: Atlanta | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
eroller
First Class Passenger
Member # 1649

posted 07-06-2009 08:31 PM      Profile for eroller     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Atlcruiser:
I can see it now. It would give Mickey another reason to use the Vista and Dream class design.


Grand Class too! Such originality. Just another reason why we don't need any additional brands under the Carnival umbrella.

Ernie


Posts: 7046 | From: Miami, Florida USA | Registered: Oct 2000  |  IP: Logged
ocngypz
First Class Passenger
Member # 1555

posted 07-06-2009 09:20 PM      Profile for ocngypz   Email ocngypz   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
$35 per share.. that's a pretty concrete number.........unless it was wishful thinking on the part of an RCL executive.

But then packaged goods companies are always being bought by their competitors... and then sold off........... brand.. by brand.


Posts: 343 | From: Newport, RI USA | Registered: Sep 2000  |  IP: Logged
reeves35
First Class Passenger
Member # 6021

posted 07-06-2009 09:23 PM      Profile for reeves35   Email reeves35   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I doubt Carnival would succeed in getting this through but I'd guess they know that too and they don't want the whole business but see it as an opportunity to cherry-pick some of the best parts of the RCI business and also significantly downsize their next biggest competitor at the same time.

What this rumour shows is how much the gap in financial strength between these two corporations has opened up as a consequence of the financial crisis. RCI, with its higher debt burden, has significantly less balance sheet strength and therefore less wriggle room. Carnival has a much stronger balance sheet and now believes itself (probably correctly) to be virtually unassailable as the premier cruise company of the world.

Brad


Posts: 343 | From: Melbourne, Australia | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
desirod7
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Member # 1626

posted 07-06-2009 10:57 PM      Profile for desirod7     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by reeves35:
RCI, with its higher debt burden, has significantly less balance sheet strength and therefore less wriggle room. Carnival has a much stronger balance sheet and now believes itself (probably correctly) to be virtually unassailable as the premier cruise company of the world.

Brad


I was advised that the RCCL debt load structure is a 'poison pill' to deter any takeover, be it Carnival, AIG, kingdom of Dubai etc.

Carnival unassailable? GM lost 1% of market share every years since 1979. Look where they are now?


Posts: 5727 | From: Philadelphia, Pa [home of the SS United States] | Registered: Oct 2000  |  IP: Logged
Cam J
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posted 07-06-2009 11:57 PM      Profile for Cam J   Email Cam J   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Not Happnen. Not a chance. RCI is so debt ridden as was said earlier it would bring Carnival Corp. to its knees. Not good for Carnival, Not good for RCT, and Definitely NOT good for the Travel Industry.
Mickey aint stupid.

Over and Out,
Cam J


Posts: 503 | From: Belvedere, CA | Registered: Jun 2009  |  IP: Logged
mike sa
First Class Passenger
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posted 07-07-2009 01:49 AM      Profile for mike sa   Author's Homepage   Email mike sa   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
We all know that each of the majors in every industry knows pretty well what the financial position of the other is - pretty much down to the last cent. Carnival obviously has been watching RCI and visa versa.

This could only happen if RCI are in or going to be in devastating financial problems (possible but not probable) in which case the competition authorities would look at the scenario in a very different light.

However I agree this would not be good for Carnival.

A bid from Star - April 1st is long gone. Private equity companies probably don't have the cash either.


Posts: 2272 | From: Durban, South Africa | Registered: Sep 2005  |  IP: Logged
Kevin Griffin, London
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posted 07-07-2009 04:10 AM      Profile for Kevin Griffin, London   Author's Homepage   Email Kevin Griffin, London   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I actually don't believe this report, and I notice that Seatrade Insider and Cruise Industry News are staying well away from it. It looks suspiciously like some politicized travel agents' organization crying wolf.
Posts: 148 | From: London, England | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
FL_Cruiser64
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Member # 13706

posted 07-07-2009 10:38 PM      Profile for FL_Cruiser64   Email FL_Cruiser64   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by joe at travelpage:
Anyone heard anything about Carnival Corp making a bid for Royal Caribbean for $35 per share (current RCL price is around $13 per share)?

Joe at TravelPage.com


I think RCCL will sell RCI ships to a new investor eventually. That would lower their debt load and they can continue sailing with the bi'guns.

A take over requires a company to accept the debt load as well. It ain't happening.

Mr Fain is not interested in RCI cruise ships anymore. He wants to have floating resorts.


Posts: 219 | From: Florida | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
mike sa
First Class Passenger
Member # 5957

posted 07-08-2009 03:01 AM      Profile for mike sa   Author's Homepage   Email mike sa   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
One wonders how much RCI's dream of creating a global cruise corporation to rival that of Carnival's has cost them. Certainly the purchase of Pullmantur has so far cost them a fortune and added a significant debt load to the company. Likewise Azamara has not exactly made them money either and again has added more debt. While both have potential it does not seem to have been realised as yet.

Perhaps if RCCL had remianed just that and not worried about trying to compete globally they would have actually been a lot stronger and a lot more profitable.

A case where bigger is not always better. I wonder how much of it may also have been personal egos ?


Posts: 2272 | From: Durban, South Africa | Registered: Sep 2005  |  IP: Logged
PamM
First Class Passenger
Member # 2127

posted 07-08-2009 03:42 AM      Profile for PamM   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The article linked to above has now been removed

Pam


Posts: 12176 | From: Cambridge, UK | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
dougnewman
First Class Passenger
Member # 11349

posted 07-08-2009 04:42 AM      Profile for dougnewman   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by PamM:
The article linked to above has now been removed
Yes, I think someone was had.

The whole thing was not remotely credible. And the person who concocted it was obviously out of touch by bringing Star Cruises into it....


Posts: 2072 | From: Long Island, NY, USA | Registered: Sep 2007  |  IP: Logged
Frosty 4
First Class Passenger
Member # 5826

posted 07-08-2009 11:41 AM      Profile for Frosty 4   Email Frosty 4   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
RCL's problems stem from all these new builds they have going on. 1B for an Oasis class vessel and how about the Solstice class???
With the economy down and not recovering as fast as expected with the "Change" govt. RCLs revenues will be down. Although this is a good time to get a deal on a cruise if you shop around wisely.
IMHO We are getting all sorts of flyers from various lines on 2 for 1 fares etc.
Frosty 4

Posts: 2531 | From: Illinois | Registered: Jul 2005  |  IP: Logged
eroller
First Class Passenger
Member # 1649

posted 07-08-2009 12:01 PM      Profile for eroller     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Frosty 4:
RCL's problems stem from all these new builds they have going on.

Carnival Corp. actually has a lot more newbuilds on order for their various brands.

Cruise lines have to think long term. A new ship is a 30-40 year investment in the future of the company. A couple years from now Royal Caribbean/Celebrity will probably be quite happy they built these ships when they did.

Ernie


Posts: 7046 | From: Miami, Florida USA | Registered: Oct 2000  |  IP: Logged
Cam J
First Class Passenger
Member # 24617

posted 07-08-2009 05:18 PM      Profile for Cam J   Email Cam J   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Frosty 4:
RCL's problems stem from all these new builds they have going on. 1B for an Oasis class vessel and how about the Solstice class???
With the economy down and not recovering as fast as expected with the "Change" govt. RCLs revenues will be down. Although this is a good time to get a deal on a cruise if you shop around wisely.
IMHO We are getting all sorts of flyers from various lines on 2 for 1 fares etc.
Frosty 4

I agree RCI's problems do stem from the expensive newbuilds. 3 billion for Oasis & Allure. 750 million or more for each Solstice class which means about 3.7 billion dollars, which all together toatals 6.7 billion in ships alone! Not counting oil, not counting payroll and other operating costs. Now is not the time to be ordering all these expensive ships especially when you are stretched for money.

Over and Out,
Cam J


Posts: 503 | From: Belvedere, CA | Registered: Jun 2009  |  IP: Logged
lasuvidaboy
First Class Passenger
Member # 4527

posted 07-08-2009 08:33 PM      Profile for lasuvidaboy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Cam J:

Now is not the time to be ordering all these expensive ships especially when you are stretched for money.


Maybe they should apply for some of that government 'stimulus' money? I'm sure there is a 100 or so billion floating around un-accounted for.


Posts: 7654 | From: Hollywood Hills/L.A. | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Cunard Fan
First Class Passenger
Member # 7530

posted 07-09-2009 03:35 AM      Profile for Cunard Fan   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I would hate it if Carnival took over RCI. RCI is to forward thinking for them. Carnival would kill it.
Posts: 2327 | From: Pasadena just north of Queen Mary | Registered: Sep 2006  |  IP: Logged
KenC
First Class Passenger
Member # 6341

posted 07-09-2009 06:46 AM      Profile for KenC   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Cam J:

I agree RCI's problems do stem from the expensive newbuilds. 3 billion for Oasis & Allure. 750 million or more for each Solstice class which means about 3.7 billion dollars, which all together toatals 6.7 billion in ships alone! Not counting oil, not counting payroll and other operating costs. Now is not the time to be ordering all these expensive ships especially when you are stretched for money.

Over and Out,
Cam J


... I see you forgot 'not to mention the huge profits that these ships will bring if they are as successful as anticipated' and maybe you overlooked the fact that they are not being ordered 'now' but several years ago when no one had any idea about the current economic meltdown?

Ken


Posts: 353 | From: Brighton, UK | Registered: Mar 2006  |  IP: Logged

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