STX say they do not expect the provisional order for a 4th Freedom class ship for RCI to be confirmed.

They have now also said that the 5th and 6th Musica class ships (who's names I am not going to try and spell - but both end in A) are not firm orders as there is no finance in place and they do not expect them to turn into firm orders.

Which means RCI have no more ships for delivery after Allure and MSC have only Splendida and 1 more Musica class ship to come both this year, after that they also have no more orders in place.

So Princess, RCI, MSC all have no ships for delivery past 2010.

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Originally posted by mike sa:
STX....also said that the 5th and 6th Musica class ships (who's names I am not going to try and spell - but both end in A) are not firm orders as there is no finance in place and they do not expect them to turn into firm orders.

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Oh thank goodness! I get queasy at the mere mention of the names MSC MERAVIGLIA and MSC FAVOLOSA!!

They said too, that the firm order for two news ships will be confirm in september 2009.

Holland America's last ship is to be delivered in 2010.

NCL only has the epic scheduled for 2010 and nothing beyond

P&O gets Azure in 2010 and nothing beyond.

Royal Carribbean only has Oasis and Allure left for delivery through 2010.

Princess hasn't had a newbuild since Ruby in 2008.

Thus we Americans who have been spoiled by the constant parade of new ships will be in for quite a shock as many of our major lines will not be seeing any new ships for probably a period of 2-4 years. If I had to guess Princess will be the first to place an order for delivery in 2012 or 2013 which means 4 or 5 years from their last newbuild. I also believe that we will once again start seeing most brands having a newbuild delivered every year or 2 as they continue to dispose of their older tonnage which is reaching the 20-30 year life expectancy and send them to other corners of the world for sailing with other brands.

Carnival will soon want to dispose of the Holiday which is 25 years old this year as well as the Fantasy and Ecstasy which will be over 20 years old very soon.

Both Celebrity, Princess, and NCL have relatively modern ships with all well under 20 years old so I don't expect them to dispose of their ships as readily but if and when they acquire newbuilds.

Royal Caribbean will probably want to send the Monarch & Majesty to Pullmantur in the next few years as they are getting up their in age as well.

The next round of newbuilds for Carnival Corp will be the first time there is a totally new design when CCL, HAL, P&O and Princess are all under the same ownership. At this point, I would assume that Carnival Corp will go for a common design across the fleet of hull at least.

This type of commonality makes huge economic sense in that it massively reduces design costs as well as enabling a bulk order with a European shipyard that can be modified between the individual lines as demand in each line evolves.

Those who loathe the prevalence of Vista class will hate this development but it makes sense. I would assume the ships would be visually different, sort of in the sense that Carnival Spirit is different from a HAL Vista class design.

What will be interesting is the size that Carnival Corp chooses to pitch its common design at. The pause in newbuilds gives Carnival a chance to see how the public responds to Oasis and Allure. If the public is not impressed or RCI struggle to fill them consistently it is possible they will stick at around the 120-130K tonne range. If they are successful, Carnival will be tempted to grow its new design to something north of 150K tonne.

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Originally posted by Joe1690:
Well, it looks like most of the major lines don't have orders past 2010. If I had to guess we will be seeing new designs as others have mentioned and new orders will be placed once this global recession ends which probably means sometime in 2010 or 2011 before new orders are placed.

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Given the economics of the industry and the exponential difference in price and longer timeframce for delivery for a prototype versus an existing design, I am going to take a contrarian view.

I believe that the next round of orders you see from the majors will be modified versions of, or out and out follow ups to existing designs.

It is going to take three to five years for the contemporary or mass market brands to get their yields back up to where they need to be, so the most economical route is to build off of existing design platforms.

The good news is that many lines already have very new designs on the market, or coming to the market very soon. These designs should be more than adequate when it's time to order new ships.
Royal Caribbean - Freedom and Oasis Class
Celebrity - Solstice Class
MSC - Musica and Fantasia Class
Silversea - Spirit Class
Seabourn - Odyssey Class
Oceania - Marina Class
Aida - Sphinx Class
Disney - Dream Class
NCL - Epic Class although I think we won't be seeing more than one of this "unique" design.
Regent - will use Oceania's Marina Class

Where I see a need for a next generation, new multi-use platform design is with Carnival Corp. I think they will need to design two multi-use platforms to be used by their various brands. A medium to large sized vessel for Cunard and HAL, and a mega size vessel that can be used across the Carnival, Princess, Costa, and P&O brands.

NCL will also have to come up with something new unless they plan on more Epic's, which is doubtful. Perhaps they can adopt the same platform Oceania and Regent will use?