"Speaking about the luxury market Silversea's Manfredi Lefevbre said 'its difficult to say what lies ahead we are on the edge of a volcano."

"Later in the day DvB's Richard Jansen brought a more sombre air to the discussion. He warned if you are not worried by the current economic downturn then you are either an extreme optimist or a danger to the business you run. He predicted more consolidation of cruise lines on the way. 'There are already cases where our help is being required to keep ships upright,' he said. "

He also said those with low levels of debt would be ok and predicted a much leaner industry meaning more consolidation.

Consolidation will be a challenge given that Carnival would find it hard to get past the regulators unless they purchase a Far East outfit - not likely. RCI might find it very difficult to raise the cash needed, so both major players are out of the market except perhaps in a small way - either might buy Silversea for instance IF it were for sale.

So all that is left is mergers between smaller companies like Voyages of Discovery/ Saga, or Hapag / Deilmann etc. Or the always talked about MSC/NCL. Not much left.

What does seem clear it is the smaller operators who stand the risk of being squeezed by lack of finance and potential squeeze on bookings, those with weak balance sheets and alot of debt will find it very difficult for the next 18-24 months and it seems clear that the luxury end of the market is starting to feel the pinch, those like Seabourne will be fine - huge backing from Carnival and the ability to redeploy their ships anywhere (for instance redeploy one of the older ships full time to Australia where they already have a large infrastructure to support and market her), companies like Silversea do not have the backing and are less able to be as flexible.

If, and that a big if, Apollo sells all or part of their cruise operation to MSC it would make an interesting family of brands:

quote:

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Originally posted by Fairsky:
I'd love to know what MSC is thinking right now. They've got a ton of cash, the backing of a large containter fleet business, and they're privately owned without the threat of a takeover. Not a bad place to be in during a recession like this.

If, and that a big if, Apollo sells all or part of their cruise operation to MSC it would make an interesting family of brands:

MSC Cruises
Norwegian Cruise Line
Oceania Cruises
Regent

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If MSC does decide to make a purchase, it will NOT be one of Apollo brands. They'll be making the check out to another major operator.....

quote:

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Originally posted by Fairsky:
I'd love to know what MSC is thinking right now. ..........interesting family of brands:

MSC Cruises
Norwegian Cruise Line
Oceania Cruises
Regent

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MSC Cruises
Saga,
Deilmann
Silversea

I do not think MSC needs another mass market line such as NCL. MSC has a European mentality and just short of 'tone deaf' for the American mass market.

The European market is where their strength lies.

There is a cruise/car for every purse and purpose.
Alfred P. Sloan

PS: My brother and his wife are taking their second cruise on the MSC Opera this summer. They like the European format.

[ 12-10-2008: Message edited by: desirod7 ]

quote:

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Originally posted by Tim in 'Lauderdale:
If MSC does decide to make a purchase, it will NOT be one of Apollo brands. They'll be making the check out to another major operator.....

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hi there,

however at the moment it's the big companies who suffer the most think about banking, insurance, car industries

MSC is hughely in container business, rates
have already fallen by 50%, they could go...
no chance they will take over..

with the debt situation, i think RCI and Apollo are in greatest danger....

we'll see exciting times ahead

The article seemed geared towards smaller companies being taken over, not one of the big two failing.

They don't have to buy anyone, they are currently growing so quickly that there is no need and a large scale tie up could actually harm the company.