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Originally posted by lasuvidaboy:
W/the economic downturn I wonder if a one of the majors will 'park' a ship during the traditionally slower seasons.

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I could absolutely see this happening with any of the large major lines. Perhaps one of the less profitable older ships in the fleet?

If the cruise industry is to survive it will have to start repositioning their ships to areas where people have money such as Europe, Australia/Asia and the Middle East.

However it is MUCH more likely IMHO to be European based ships / lines that will suffer more. And potentially smaller companies like Silversea who have lesser cash flows and their debt as a % of turnover will also be larger.

However it is interesting that Spain has been in recession for 6 months or so and Pullmantur are still adding tonnage.

I would think that Europe would survive better than the US.

The financial crisis is much much worst in America than anywhere else in the world and it will be Americans that are the first to suffer and lose their credit cards, debit cards, there will be a rush on to get savings from financial institutions focing them to close.

It will be the countries with financial institutions not linked or have money connected to America that will survive. For example in Australia our major banks are not owned by America and have not suffered. Our smaller financial institutions certianly dont invest worldwide and are surviving with no losses. I would imagine this would be the same for the rest of the world that have financial insitutions not lined to America.

Similarly, ISLAND STAR is due to go to Pullmantur in April. Pullmantur have cancelled a number of cruises this month on ZENITH, EMPRESS and OCEANIC and I would be very surprised if RCI shift additional tonnage to that brand. And let's not forget SOVEREIGN OF THE SEAS, also due to move to Spain.

Examples are less working class families able to afford cruises on mass market ships. Example General Motors in America cuts production and thousands of people lose jobs. People from that demographic class would go on a Carnival or RCCL cruise. With the working class out of work and if the trend continues it will be the lines that rely on the working class that suffer.

The luxury lines will survive in my opinion because there are allot of filthy rich people who still have the money to afford it. As they are smaller ships and only the rich know about it they should be safe in a league of their own.

Another example is a transatlantic crossing on the QM2 costs more money than the average workers home. Cunard are experienced dealing with the extremely wealthy and it is the extremely wealthy professionals that will still have their high paid jobs and be able to afford the luxuries. Jobs start going from the bottum up. Therefore it would make sense that the companys people at the bottom spend money on lose out first.

Where you get the idea that a QM2 cruise costs more than someones house I don't know especially given most of her pax are US or UK based. How can you believe such total toss, suggesting that houses in the US or Europe are less than a cruise.

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Originally posted by Sutho:
By the time they enter service there will be no one in America with money to sail on them.

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Originally posted by Sutho:
Another example is a transatlantic crossing on the QM2 costs more money than the average workers home.

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I do however see everyone's point about older tonnage and I agree with it, what I do see happening is more of the 3-4 day "party" cruises for these older ships at a lower per diem, then make it back on the on board sales.

Here in West Virginia I live in a very small town of about 16,000 people and you can't buy a half decent house here for under $50-70,000, so I rent for about $350 a month. My annual income as a Health Care Support Associate is less than $19,000. A trans-Atlantic cruise on the QM2 costs about $800-1000 per person. I've cut back drastically on spending and since August have been donating plasma twice a week for my grocery money and gas for the car. Havent had a vacation in 3 years. But I am saving for one for my 50th birthday next year (I'm going to Walt Disney World, you get in FREE on your birthday), paying off my bills and credit cards, and drive a POS Neon that is also paid off. But I count my blessings and consider my self fortunate to have a roof over my head, heat in my house, and food in the cupboards.

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Originally posted by dmwnc1:

Here in West Virginia I live in a very small town of about 16,000 people and you can't buy a half decent house here for under $50-70,000, so I rent for about $350 a month. My annual income as a Health Care Support Associate is less than $19,000. A trans-Atlantic cruise on the QM2 costs about $800-1000 per person. I've cut back drastically on spending and since August have been donating plasma twice a week for my grocery money and gas for the car. Haven't had a vacation in 3 years. But I am saving for one for my 50th birthday next year (I'm going to Walt Disney World, you get in FREE on your birthday), paying off my bills and credit cards, and drive a POS Neon that is also paid off. But I count my blessings and consider my self fortunate to have a roof over my head, heat in my house, and food in the cupboards.

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Not to downplay your hardship in any way, but I don't think a small town in West Virginia is a fair representation of salaries and cost of living in the US.

West Virginia probably has one of the lowest cost of living expenses in the US, and no doubt the salaries are far lower as well. West Virginia is also one of the poorest US states, with only Mississippi coming in below you. The average medium household income in West Virginia is $37,060. Your neighboring state, Maryland has the highest at $68,080 (mainly due to proximity to D.C.).

I'm not sure what circumstances led you to live in a small West Virginia town, but I'm fairly certain if you lived in a larger city in a more prosperous state things might be different for you.

FYI the poverty rate in the US is currently defined as any household making less than $10,400 a year. At any given time there is approximately 12% to 16% of the population living at or below the poverty level.

In 2007, the median household income in the US was $50,233.

Ernie

[ 11-08-2008: Message edited by: eroller ]

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Originally posted by eroller:
Not to downplay your hardship in any way... I'm not sure what circumstances led you to live in a small West Virginia town, but I'm fairly certain if you lived in a larger city in a more prosperous state things might be different for you. Ernie

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No hardship, really. Just living a much slower, self imposed, and less frill-filled life than I did when I worked in Charlote NC and was a TA making 50+K a year with lots of perks. I moved up here to get away from the rat-race, find some inner peace and quiet, and really love it. I was kidding with a friend the other day saying we were so poor up here we would never notice if we were in a recession! Depending on how hard this winter is I've had an open invitation from relatives to move in with them, and Clearwater, Florida sounds a might heap better than here.

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Originally posted by ahrpd:
Pullmantur have cancelled a number of cruises this month on ZENITH, EMPRESS and OCEANIC
Tony

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Oh dear! Tony, do you happen to know if OCEANIC's 17-24 November cruise from Barcelona is among the sailings that have been cancelled?

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Originally posted by dmwnc1:

No hardship, really. Just living a much slower, self imposed, and less frill-filled life than I did when I worked in Charlote NC and was a TA making 50+K a year with lots of perks. I moved up here to get away from the rat-race, find some inner peace and quiet, and really love it.

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I'm glad you like it, and that is the most important thing right? $$$ doesn't always mean happiness, but I find it can help! Best of luck with whatever you decide to do. I have also considered moving to Florida (Ft. Lauderdale) and even back to California but I don't know if it will happen in 2009. Things are going well in Atlanta and this is a great city but I sure do miss the ocean!

If I put blaming America aside for the world financial crises. The poit is it is the people at the big end of town that are the winners and still have their money while it is the little people that lose their jobs and suffer.

That is why I think the mass market lines will suffer first particulary the larger ships that need 5000 passengers to fill it.

Still, I would venture to say that the average cost of a booked 7-night cruise incl. bar tab and some shore excursions would be about $5000-6000 for a couple, still far below the cost of a house.

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Originally posted by jeffrossatsea:
i did...jeff

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Originally posted by DAMBROSI:
These times are a bit rougher I think than the Great Depression Era.

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I wasn't living during the Great Depression, but from what I have read I don't think today compares even remotely. Yes times are tough, but unemployment is no where near it's all time high, and people are still spending money, going out to eat, going to movies, and even taking vacations. While big ticket items like cars and houses have been severely impacted, most people can still afford to eat and fill their cars with gas. I have not seen any bread lines like existed during the depression era and I hope I never do.