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quote:Cruise demand set to exceed supplyMarket has recovered, growing steadily: studyBy DAVID HUGHESJune 21, 2005THE cruise industry has recovered from the '9/11' effect to the extent that 11 additional large cruise ships need to be ordered for delivery by 2010 to meet expected demand.The latest announcement of new tonnage comes from French engineering giant Alstom, which owns the Chantiers de L'Atlantique yard. It says it has a letter of intent from Italian-owned MSC Cruising to build two of the largest cruise ships ever ordered by a European shipowner.MSC Cruising, an affiliate company of the container line MSC which grew phenomenally during the 1990s to become one of the major players in that market, plans to order two ships, each with 1,500 cabins capable and capable of carrying 4,000 passengers and a crew of 1,500. The vessels would be for 2008 and 2009 delivery.According to a new study, these MSC newbuildings will be well placed to allow the owner to cash in on a steadily growing market.UK-based independent research company Ocean Shipping Consultants (OSC), in its latest report 'The World Cruise Shipping Industry to 2020 - A Detailed Appraisal of Prospects', forecasts a strengthening cruise ship market over the next five years, even under its most conservative scenario.MSC may have a track record for rapid and expansion and be setting its sights high but, as OSC notes, there are only three really big players in the cruise sector.It says: 'Whilst the extensive world cruise ship fleet is run by a large number of individual cruise lines, the industry has continued to become more concentrated in a small number of major operators over the past decade.'Indeed, this market consolidation by the major lines has accelerated in recent years through further merger/take-over, and the cessation of operations of several smaller lines. Based on the current orderbook, this trend is set to continue to dominate over the coming decade.'OSC says the top 13 cruise lines account for over 75 per cent in terms of passenger capacity, or 236,000 of the global aggregate of 313,000 berths.Carnival Group, which now includes among other subsidiaries P&O Cruises, now accounts for 133,500 berths while its nearest rival, RCCL Group, has less than half of that capacity, at 62,000. Malaysian-owned Star Cruises has 26,000.Despite the 9/11-induced slowdown, OSC says that the world cruise ship fleet has continued to expand at a rapid pace in recent years, with the total number of berths offered on multi-day cruises for vessels of 50 plus passenger capacity increasing from around 160,000 at the beginning of 1995 to over 310,000 in 2005.This represents a near-doubling in capacity over the past decade, with aggregate fleet numbers in the interim period suggesting overall expansion since 2000 of over 33 per cent.While there are still operators of small vessels, including innovative new entrant easyCruise, the emphasis is firmly on large vessels with about 91 per cent of all vessels on order having more than 1,500 berth capacity. This compares the 27.5 per cent of the existing fleet that are this big.There very few ships of under 1,500-berth capacity on order and only 10 per cent for 1,500-2,500 berth vessels, but 74 per cent for larger tonnage. So the projected MSC vessels are indicative of the way the market is going.The massive North American cruise market will still dominate the industry, with 9.25 million passengers predicted for this year and 12 million by 2010, but the report also expects strong growth in other areas.OSC says: 'In South-east Asia, cruises have increased in popularity and continue to do so, although there exist several key problems to any large-scale volume growth being achieved.'In terms of the future outlook, South-east Asian cruise passenger volumes are forecast to develop from an estimated 0.4 million in 2005 to 0.55 million by 2010, almost 0.7 million by 2015 and an end-period level of around 0.82 million.'Shipping Times
THE cruise industry has recovered from the '9/11' effect to the extent that 11 additional large cruise ships need to be ordered for delivery by 2010 to meet expected demand.
The latest announcement of new tonnage comes from French engineering giant Alstom, which owns the Chantiers de L'Atlantique yard. It says it has a letter of intent from Italian-owned MSC Cruising to build two of the largest cruise ships ever ordered by a European shipowner.
MSC Cruising, an affiliate company of the container line MSC which grew phenomenally during the 1990s to become one of the major players in that market, plans to order two ships, each with 1,500 cabins capable and capable of carrying 4,000 passengers and a crew of 1,500. The vessels would be for 2008 and 2009 delivery.
According to a new study, these MSC newbuildings will be well placed to allow the owner to cash in on a steadily growing market.
UK-based independent research company Ocean Shipping Consultants (OSC), in its latest report 'The World Cruise Shipping Industry to 2020 - A Detailed Appraisal of Prospects', forecasts a strengthening cruise ship market over the next five years, even under its most conservative scenario.
MSC may have a track record for rapid and expansion and be setting its sights high but, as OSC notes, there are only three really big players in the cruise sector.
It says: 'Whilst the extensive world cruise ship fleet is run by a large number of individual cruise lines, the industry has continued to become more concentrated in a small number of major operators over the past decade.
'Indeed, this market consolidation by the major lines has accelerated in recent years through further merger/take-over, and the cessation of operations of several smaller lines. Based on the current orderbook, this trend is set to continue to dominate over the coming decade.'
OSC says the top 13 cruise lines account for over 75 per cent in terms of passenger capacity, or 236,000 of the global aggregate of 313,000 berths.
Carnival Group, which now includes among other subsidiaries P&O Cruises, now accounts for 133,500 berths while its nearest rival, RCCL Group, has less than half of that capacity, at 62,000. Malaysian-owned Star Cruises has 26,000.
Despite the 9/11-induced slowdown, OSC says that the world cruise ship fleet has continued to expand at a rapid pace in recent years, with the total number of berths offered on multi-day cruises for vessels of 50 plus passenger capacity increasing from around 160,000 at the beginning of 1995 to over 310,000 in 2005.
This represents a near-doubling in capacity over the past decade, with aggregate fleet numbers in the interim period suggesting overall expansion since 2000 of over 33 per cent.
While there are still operators of small vessels, including innovative new entrant easyCruise, the emphasis is firmly on large vessels with about 91 per cent of all vessels on order having more than 1,500 berth capacity. This compares the 27.5 per cent of the existing fleet that are this big.
There very few ships of under 1,500-berth capacity on order and only 10 per cent for 1,500-2,500 berth vessels, but 74 per cent for larger tonnage. So the projected MSC vessels are indicative of the way the market is going.
The massive North American cruise market will still dominate the industry, with 9.25 million passengers predicted for this year and 12 million by 2010, but the report also expects strong growth in other areas.
OSC says: 'In South-east Asia, cruises have increased in popularity and continue to do so, although there exist several key problems to any large-scale volume growth being achieved.
'In terms of the future outlook, South-east Asian cruise passenger volumes are forecast to develop from an estimated 0.4 million in 2005 to 0.55 million by 2010, almost 0.7 million by 2015 and an end-period level of around 0.82 million.'
Shipping Times
******
Cheers
quote:Patsy wrote:I wonder when the bottom will fall out of the cruise industry?
When there is a world recession or even worse a world war.
Pam
Can anyone imagine them doing this to the hundreds of foreign-carrier jet liners arriving and departing the US every day? What about fuel supply to foreign auto makers who have factories in the US?
The cruise lines have already announced that they've been able to weather the 35% fuel cost increases fairly well, and they are still making profits hand over fist! (That just tells you how lucrative the business is ) The lines will be very reluctant to implement a "fuel surcharge", but don't be surprised if non-commissionable fares ("port charges") rise in the near future.
Rich
quote:Originally posted by Patsy: There's the world saying to cut greenhouse gases and stuff and trying to get people out of cars but cruises and flying are growing.
2000 people on a ship is more ecologically sound that 1000 cars on the road; but of course many of them will have driven or flown to the port!
quote:Originally posted by mec1:How dare any American even suggest imposing a fuel tax on cruise ships.
I think the US should impose a hefty fuel tax on any foreign flagged vessel calling at a US port! Of course NCL America ships would be exempt since they are registered in the US! Maybe another tax should be imposed on any non-US citizens who happen to be sailing on the vessel?
For those that don't know what this symbol means ..... it means I'm joking and being sarcastic before you get yourself into a huff.
Ernie
quote: Cruise demand set to exceed supply
Old Chinese Proverb
"When demand exceeds supplyPRICE GO UP"
[ 06-26-2005: Message edited by: empressport ]
quote:Originally posted by empressport:I can't imagine being in some Carribean ports with even more ships in port
If people have any sense they will start to migrate to other cruise destinations. NCL are obviously hoping it will be Hawaii, many cruise lines look to be pining their hopes on Europe.
Spain used to be the top destination for Brits seeking sunshine holidays, but now it has dropped down the list, so it is possible when people out-grow a destination.
quote:Originally posted by NAL:It's not that our gas [petrol] is under-priced, it'sthat yours is over taxed.
But the tax helps provides free education and healthcare for all - the British Dream!
quote:Originally posted by NAL:Mec1.......It's not that our gas [petrol] is under-priced, it'sthat yours is over taxed.
quote:Originally posted by Malcolm @ cruisepage:If people have any sense they will start to migrate to other cruise destinations. NCL are obviously hoping it will be Hawaii, many cruise lines look to be pining their hopes on Europe.Spain used to be the top destination for Brits seeking sunshine holidays, but now it has dropped down the list, so it is possible when people out-grow a destination.
Cruise lines could re-position their ships to some of the most exotic destinations in the world, but passengers still have to 'fly' to get there. And the general public just doesnt seem to want to fly. Hence, the cruise lines are positioning their fleets into every 'wanna-be' cruise port in the US. "If I cant drive to the ship, I aint cruisin" seems to taken a strong mindset on the cruising public. Never have I seen so many ships leave from north-eastern ports for a week long trip to the Bahamas or St Thomas, and spend all their time at sea just getting there and back. And with more and more ships coming out, and not so many going away, Alaskan, Bermuda, and Caribbean ports of call will become gridlock with mega-liners filled with tourists.
quote:Originally posted by mec1:How dare any American even suggest imposing a fuel tax on cruise ships. 4% of the world's population using - no, make that wasting and guzzling - 45% of its energy resources with ludicrously underpriced petrol and a leader who won't acknowledge global warming or do anything about it? Makes me sick.
I saw a bumper sticker the other day that said "I love my country, I just hate the government"....
And I do love the USofA, but in this case mec1, all I have to say is "Amen Brother"...
quote:Originally posted by NAL:Do you really believe that fewer drive becauseof a "disincentive to drive" tax? In reality justas many drive and more are suffering the hard-ships imposed by over taxation.......or many of theless affluent drive less and the more affluentdrive as much or more.
Have you ever seen the traffic in London? ...:-)
Seriously, the goverment should increase federal funding to AMTRAK and local rail services, quit funding 10's of BILLIONS of dollars into the airline industry just to keep them in the red-ink, tax the crap out of high end luxury gas-guzzling cars, and leave cruise ships alone, even give them some price break. They bring millions of dollars into the local economies of cruise ports by the way of hotels, rental cars, restaurants, taxi's, tipping the bell hop at the airport, etc.
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