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» Cruise Talk   » Cruise Ships   » Cruise Ship Business Modeling

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Author Topic: Cruise Ship Business Modeling
JohnHJ
First Class Passenger
Member # 30846

posted 07-19-2010 10:58 PM      Profile for JohnHJ   Author's Homepage   Email JohnHJ   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
As a child cruise ships always fascinated me, and still today I just can’t help but be mesmerized by their beauty, intricacies, and all of the things which make each ship (or today, each class) unique. Now, as an adult and someone who crunches spreadsheets and builds business models for a living, I can’t help but wonder about the business modeling the cruise lines must consider for the various aspects of their business. Specifically what intrigues me is the debt service required to build and operate a modern fleet of ships. Royal Caribbean for example has arguably led the way in new builds over the past ten years or so. As I look at their investor relations (http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=103045&p=irol-keystatistics) statistics one can clearly see the total debt and various notes purchased which are still outstanding all the way back to 1997.

Obviously the ability to self finance a new build, such as Carnival and others has done is an enviable position to be in, however; the question which I was wondering if anyone could shed some light on is for those ships built with a large amount of debt service, how long does the cruise line budget for payoff in the business modeling? From what I can glean, it looks like most new builds from the 80’s and early 90’s have already made their 2nd or 3rd appearance at a new company (and typically under a new name) which makes me wonder how or if the business modeling can even begin to account for residual values on new builds of today 10, 15, or even 20 plus years out.

There are a lot of great discussions on this board about how the various ships work, operate, are laid out, entertainment, food, etc. I thought perhaps a thread on the business model aspect for building a cruise ship might generate some interesting discussions.


Posts: 60 | From: Tallahassee, FL | Registered: Jan 2010  |  IP: Logged
Tom Burke
First Class Passenger
Member # 5238

posted 07-20-2010 03:53 AM      Profile for Tom Burke   Author's Homepage   Email Tom Burke   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I too would be interested in learning more about these business aspects of the industry. I've read the book "$elling the $ea" by Bob Dickinson & Andy Vladimir, and that was interesting, but it dealt mainly with the marketing and operation of the ships. I'd like to learn more about the ultimate financing side of things.
Posts: 1469 | From: Sheffield, UK | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
GregD
First Class Passenger
Member # 4176

posted 07-20-2010 08:59 PM      Profile for GregD   Author's Homepage   Email GregD   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Selling the Sea was good. Devils on the deep blue sea and the Cruise Ship phenomenon in North America are other good ones.
I even heard that Carnival is able to pay in cash upfront for newbuilds. Don't know if anyone can confirm it.
I also wonder if as ships become pricer, if their lifespan in their original cruise line is extended? That could better offset the investment over time.

Posts: 548 | From: Texas | Registered: Sep 2003  |  IP: Logged
Carlos Fernandez
First Class Passenger
Member # 6432

posted 07-20-2010 09:15 PM      Profile for Carlos Fernandez   Author's Homepage   Email Carlos Fernandez   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Selling the Sea is very good and Devils on the Deep Blue Sea is mostly historic but it covers the attempt by Carnival to take over Royal Caribbean and the fight over Princess among others.
Posts: 1325 | From: Miami, Florida (Cruise Capital of the World) | Registered: Apr 2006  |  IP: Logged
SSTRAVELER
First Class Passenger
Member # 15170

posted 07-20-2010 09:20 PM      Profile for SSTRAVELER     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by JohnHJ:
the question which I was wondering if anyone could shed some light on is for those ships built with a large amount of debt service, how long does the cruise line budget for payoff in the business modeling? From what I can glean, it looks like most new builds from the 80’s and early 90’s have already made their 2nd or 3rd appearance at a new company


I have not looked at the debt service, length of debt questions in depth but I would think you might find something in the analyst reports on RCL or maybe even could email such a question to their IR department.

One thing to keep in mind is that a fair number of the ships have not actually been sold but instead transfer from the "premier" brand to a second tier brand where the competition factors are different. The USA brands are facing the most difficult competition so the companies like RCL and even Carnival are transferring the oldest ships of the fleet to non-USA brands where they can slap on some fresh paint and get more economic life. RCL has done this with Pullmantur for example which is quickly turning into Royal Caribbean's hand me downs. So the debt service etc. remains with the parent corporation and they are getting extended/better economic lives in theory ... well except for the global recession which hurt the Spanish market very badly.

Carnival Corp has done something similar with P&O Australia and some of its European investments taking the oldest USA tonnage.

Historically in the USA they law set a 20 or 25 year economic life for the ships.

Globally some of the most successful ships paid for themselves in as little as 5 or 7 years.

Cruise lines generally look at the ships on a per berth cost these days but one fears they will get like the airlines which are notorious for burning capital and never recouping.....

Get your hands one some of the analyst reports or email me privately and I might be able to get you some analyst reports on the major cruise lines.


Posts: 757 | From: New York | Registered: May 2008  |  IP: Logged
HomeLines
First Class Passenger
Member # 1707

posted 07-21-2010 02:17 AM      Profile for HomeLines     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Royal Caribbean's balance sheet has always been very debt heavy. Carnival Corp, on the other hand, tends to payoff their ships in about 8 years or less. They generate a lot more free cash than Royal Caribbean and they pay less (per berth) for their new ships than Royal Caribbean does.
Posts: 165 | Registered: Dec 2000  |  IP: Logged

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